Marketing measurement sits at a critical crossroads. As brands navigate an increasingly complex landscape of channels and tactics, the quest for reliable performance insights has never been more important. Many marketers have turned to two primary methodologies: marketing mix modeling (MMM) for its comprehensive view, and incrementality testing, considered by some to be the “gold standard” of marketing measurement.
Yet even as incrementality testing maintains its respected position despite increased scrutiny for its methodology, marketers face practical challenges in implementation. The tests are expensive, time-consuming, and can produce results that vary significantly between iterations or don’t align with other performance indicators. These inconsistencies create difficult questions: Which test results should inform major budget decisions? How can marketers reconcile conflicting insights from different measurement approaches?
Prescient AI has developed a solution that addresses these challenges head-on. Our advanced MMM not only delivers unprecedented accuracy by reflecting true marketing dynamics, but now offers a groundbreaking capability: the ability to validate and incorporate incrementality data directly into your measurement ecosystem.
How you can use incrementality data in Prescient’s platform
Prescient’s platform offers a groundbreaking approach to incrementality data integration through our model comparison feature, called Validation Layer. Rather than simply accepting incrementality data at face value or rejecting it outright, our system lets marketers directly compare how this data affects model performance.
When you upload incrementality test results to the Prescient platform, you can run two parallel models:
- Baseline Model: Calibrated using your historical marketing data, sales information, and external factors without incorporating incrementality test results.
- Incrementality-Enhanced Model: Calibrated with the same foundational data but adjusted to incorporate your incrementality test findings.
Both models run simultaneously, processing the same historical data but with different calibration approaches.
The real power of this approach lies in the backtest comparison. Prescient’s platform shows you exactly how each model performs when predicting actual historical outcomes that weren’t part of the training data.
This transparent comparison removes the guesswork from incrementality data validation. If incorporating incrementality results improves predictive accuracy, you’ll see it clearly in the metrics. If it degrades performance, that becomes equally evident.
Based on comprehensive backtest results, Prescient’s system generates a recommendation about which model is likely to provide more reliable insights moving forward. However, we firmly believe that you should maintain ultimate control over your measurement approach. The platform allows you to select which model becomes your primary model for ongoing optimization and forecasting—regardless of which model our system recommends.
We consider this another reason why our MMM is best-in-market
While conventional MMMs rely on regression analysis developed in the 1960s and struggle to provide insights beyond the channel level, Prescient has built a fundamentally different approach. Our models layer multiple algorithms together, creating a system that identifies and quantifies the nuanced relationships between marketing activities at the campaign level.
Prescient’s measurement technology is built upon fundamental principles that experienced marketers already intuitively understand. (You can read about each of them here.) Even newer MMMs powered by iterations of open-sourced models like Robyn and Meridian struggle with this. By building these marketing truths into our technology, Prescient offers measurement that reflects real marketing dynamics rather than forcing marketing data into ill-fitting statistical models.
Prescient’s industry-leading MMM stands out further with our unique ability to validate incrementality test data and use it to calibrate your models. Unlike providers that offer both incrementality testing and MMM services, we have no vested interest in promoting either methodology; our only goal is delivering the most accurate insights for your business. This neutrality ensures we evaluate incrementality data objectively, incorporating it when it improves model performance and identifying potential issues when it doesn’t. By separating these services while creating a bridge between them, we’ve developed a truly best-in-class solution that leverages the strengths of both approaches.
The problem with MMMs that offer incrementality testing
You can tell already that we think providers offering both MMM and incrementality solutions are, essentially, grading their own homework. When results diverge, the vendor faces a dilemma: admitting that one methodology produced inaccurate results could undermine client confidence. This creates incentives to make incrementality tests and MMM outputs artificially consistent.
But this neutrality question isn’t the only issue with providing both tools:
- Technical limitations: The two methodologies require different types of expertise that rarely coexist within a single organization. Effective incrementality testing demands deep knowledge of experimental design, while MMM excellence requires sophisticated modeling capabilities.
- Trust limitations: Having different providers for incrementality testing and MMM creates valuable checks and balances in your measurement ecosystem. When Prescient’s MMM validates positive incrementality test results, you gain increased confidence in both methodologies.
Wrapping it up…
The future of marketing measurement demands an integrated approach that leverages the strengths of both MMM and incrementality testing. Prescient’s innovative dual-model capability gives you unprecedented visibility into your measurement accuracy, allowing you to make informed decisions about which data sources truly enhance your understanding of marketing performance. By validating incrementality results objectively and incorporating them when beneficial, we’re creating a more reliable path to marketing optimization.
As the marketing landscape grows increasingly complex, having a trusted, neutral advisor has never been more valuable. With Prescient, you no longer have to choose between competing methodologies or worry about conflicting incentives from providers who grade their own homework. Instead, you can build a measurement ecosystem where incrementality tests and MMM work in harmony, guided by a single goal: maximizing your marketing success through the most accurate insights possible.
Let us show you how powerful this can be for your marketing org in action. Book a demo to see how Validation Layer compares your models.
