The Cross-Channel Halo: 65% of TikTok's Revenue Lands Off-Platform

How TikTok advertising actually performed for DTC brands in 2025-2026. Prescient AI analyzed $87.3M in tracked TikTok spend across 69 DTC brands over 49 weeks. The finding: 65% of the revenue Prescient's MMM attributes to TikTok lands on a non-TikTok channel. The platform dashboard cannot see most of it by design.

• 65% of the revenue Prescient's MMM attributes to TikTok lands on a non-TikTok channel (brand median, 95% CI [54.1%, 77.3%])
• Amazon and retail combined absorb 82% of TikTok's halo revenue; only 2% stays inside TikTok itself
• Modeled ROAS measures 3.41x the revenue the platform dashboard reports at the brand median, 2.01x at aggregate
• Pattern is structural, not seasonal: brand-median halo share varies only 2.7 percentage points across rolling 30, 90, and 365 day windows