Overfitting
When a model has essentially memorized historical data rather than learned the underlying patterns, producing high accuracy in retrospect but unreliable outputs when conditions change.
More Media Mix Modeling terms
Adstock
The lingering effect of advertising spend after a campaign ends.
Baseline leakage
When an MMM incorrectly attributes baseline sales to paid media, inflating channel performance.
Baseline revenue
The revenue a brand would generate without any paid marketing activity.
Cross-channel interaction
The way campaigns on one channel influence performance on others, such as a Meta awareness campaign lifting branded search volume or Amazon conversion rates.
Forecasting
Using model outputs to project future revenue or performance under different spend scenarios.